Can Democrats keep control of the House & Senate after midterm elections?

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The Democrats are controlling the House, the Senate and the presidency at the moment, but the midterm election coming up at the end of the year has the power to change this status quo. With the Republicans’ conservative roll-back in full swing, you would expect voters on the left to be energized, but the party is up against a historical precedent at the same time: The president’s party rarely does well in the midterms.

 

Infographic: President’s Party up Against Poor Odds in the Midterms | Statista You will find more infographics at Statista

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As seen in data by The American Presidency Project, there are only two presidents of the modern age who could expand their party’s showing in both chambers in the midterms or at least not lose ground: Bill Clinton during his second term and George W. Bush during his first, when he managed to flip the Senate in his favor while holding on to the House just one year after 9/11. Against these few success stories stands a long line of defeats.

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Barack Obama lost control of the House forever two years into his eight-year term and suffered another major setback in his second midterms when he lost the Senate as well. Bill Clinton in 1994 lost control of both chambers of Congress by the middle of his first term and never won them back in the six years that followed despite the gains he made in his second midterm election. After George W. Bush’s successful first midterms, debacle followed four years later as he lost both chambers in 2006 amid fall-out from Hurricane Katrina and the war in Iraq.

 

Related: How Biden’s push for new building codes could impact your home

 

While the proof of midterm losses for sitting presidents is resounding, the reasons behind them are more muddled.

 

Nobody really knows why the midterms are so hard for incumbents irrespective of the political climate. Depending on how a president is perceived by his voters, he could be hit by either apathy or disappointment.

 

Other than 9/11, which helped George W. Bush succeed, other national crises have not proven a good predictor for midterms success, which leave two more possible culprits: presidential approval and the state of the economy. Neither will work in Biden’s favor in November.

 

This article originally appeared on Statista.com

https://www.statista.com/chart/15723/the-neat-seat-loss-gain-by-the-presidents-party-in-the-midterm-elections/

and was syndicated by MediaFeed.org.

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This generation disapproves of Biden the most

 

President Biden’s approval rating has been taking a bit of a battering of late, and as new analysis of survey data by Gallup reveals, it’s among the younger voters where the biggest falls are being recorded.

 

Here are the percentage point changes in Biden’s approval rating (from January-June 2022 to September 2021-March 2022) by generation.

 

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Percentage point change in Biden’s approval rating: -21

 

Gage Skidmore

 

Percentage point change in Biden’s approval rating: -19

 

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Percentage point change in Biden’s approval rating: -15

 

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Percentage point change in Biden’s approval rating: -7

 

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Percentage point change in Biden’s approval rating: 0

 

(Defined as those born between 1927 and 1946)

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There has been a 21 point drop in approval with members of Generation Z (born 1997 to 2004) since the first half of 2021, bringing the rate down to just 39 percent, the lowest of all the generation groups having been joint highest with Millennials. Speaking of which, those born between 1981 and 1996 registered a 19-point decrease in approval of the president, falling to 41 percent, and one percent below the national average of 42 percent.

 

Gallup provides some context for the changes: “By the summer (of 2021), as coronavirus cases unexpectedly rose, Biden had lost significant support among Generation Z, millennials and Generation X, ranging from seven- to ten-percentage-point drops. But his approval rating held steady among baby boomers and traditionalists. All generational groups have become less approving of Biden since the summer, after the troubled U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in late August 2021, with the exception of traditionalists, whose approval has not changed.”

 

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Survey results are based on combined samples of 14,229 Americans ,18 years of age or older. The survey was conducted by Gallop. More methodology and source information can be found on Statista.

 

This article originally appeared on Statista.com and was syndicated by MediaFeed.org.

 

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Featured Image Credit: DepositPhotos.com.

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