Is yet another fed rate hike coming? Money pro weighs in

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Returns were positive across most asset classes in July, a welcome development after a tough June. Interest rates declined broadly on fears of a downturn, despite job growth remaining strong and an acceleration in some inflation components. Commodity prices have declined significantly since June, however, a potential sign that inflation has finally peaked. This likely contributed to the rally in risky assets such as stocks & crypto, with a strong Q2 earnings season pointing to recession fears being thus far overblown.

 

Related: Pros & cons of averaging down

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Macro

  • The Fed hiked rates by 75bps on Jul 27.
  • Q2 GDP growth came in at -0.9%, weighed down primarily due to a 2% drag from inventories.
  • Jun CPI surprised to the upside once again, coming in at 9.1% y/y.
  • National gas prices declined from $4.84 on Jun 30 to $4.21 on Jul 31, the lowest levels since early May.
  • The Nonfarm Payrolls report showed 398k & 528k jobs added in Jun & Jul, significantly above consensus estimates.

Equities

  • US stocks rebounded strongly in July from their Jun swoon, recording their strongest rally since Nov 2020.
  • Growth stocks significantly outperformed value stocks due a combination of declining interest rates and their perceived resilience in growth slowdowns.
  • The Q2 EPS surprise rate is +5.8% so far, notably higher than the consensus estimated surprise rate coming into earnings season.

Fixed Income

  • Treasury yields declined in late July, as recession fears and expectations of earlier rate cuts from the Fed boosted bonds.
  • Significant inversion of the yield curve occurred in July, as 1-Yr and shorter interest rates increased while yields longer than 1-Yr declined significantly.
  • Credit spreads narrowed significantly in July, as lower longer-term interest rates lessened some of the strain on risky borrowers.

Crypto

  • Fears of further insolvencies eased in July, leading to a broad rebound in crypto prices, though most coins remain significantly in the red on the year.
  • Sept 19 was offered as a tentative date for the Ethereum Merge, boosting ETH and other altcoins built on the network.

Sector total returns

The Fed Says It’s Committed But…

The Fed’s July 27 rate hike was its second consecutive 75bps hike and the fastest pace of tightening since the early 1980s. While the decision itself was noteworthy, there were interesting nuggets in what Powell said during the post-FOMC meeting presser as well.

 

For one, Powell reiterated the Fed’s resolve to get inflation down back to 2% over time, as he has done after prior meetings. He noted that the Fed does not see the dual mandate of maximum sustainable employment & price stability as in conflict in the medium- and long-term. That’s important because it implies that a rise in unemployment (or mild recession) wouldn’t be enough to knock the Fed off its path to hike rates.

 

Maybe even more importantly, Powell said that the Fed didn’t want a stop-and-go policy of hiking rates and then cutting soon after. He also mentioned that the Jun dot plot—which indicated a 3.4% fed funds rate in Dec 2022 & 3.9% rate in Dec 2023 as being the best guides he could give for the path of rate hikes. Taking all of this into consideration, the message was that ending rate hikes does not necessarily mean starting rate cuts.

Fed funds target rate

…Is the Economic Glass Half-Full or Half-Empty?

However, the market sent different signals than the Fed in July. Whereas the Fed’s median Dec 2023 dot shows a 3.8% fed funds rate, market pricing has hovered around 2.6-3.1% for the end of 2023. Current expectations are for the fed funds rate to peak in Q1 2023 and then be cut shortly thereafter.

 

It seems as though investors & the Fed view the state of the economy differently. Jerome Powell stated that the economy as still strong and the labor market as “tight to an unhealthy level”, with much work needed to be done to get inflation down. Market participants see a big decline in commodity prices and weaker growth as a sign that the worst of inflation is now behind us—or that recession risk has risen.

Implied fed funds target rate

Data over the next few months will show which side is right, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility that the Fed will keep rates high even in the face of an economic slowdown. Inflation is public enemy #1 and the Fed has made it clear that not doing enough to stop inflation now means more pain later.

ABOUT LIZ YOUNG

Liz Young is SoFi’s Head of Investment Strategy, responsible for building out the function and providing economic and market insights. Prior to joining SoFi, Liz was the Director of Market Strategy at BNY Mellon Investment Management where she formulated and delivered views on macroeconomic themes and their effects on capital markets. Earlier in her career, she was a due diligence analyst at Robert W. Baird and a research analyst at BMO Global Asset Management. Liz is passionate about educating others on markets and investing in order to help people feel empowered to take a more active role in their financial futures.

 

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This article originally appeared on SoFi.com and was syndicated by MediaFeed.org.

 

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States where home foreclosures are starting to spike

 

Editor’s Note: Updated for July 2022

 

Amid rising mortgage rates and falling home sales, foreclosures are on the upswing. The number of U.S. properties with foreclosure filings in June was 31,707, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. This is up over 143% from a year ago. Much of the foreclosure activity is on loans that began prior to the pandemic and would have been foreclosed on without pandemic protections.

 

With the median home price reaching a record $407,600, home ownership is becoming more difficult for new buyers and existing owners alike. In this climate of high mortgage rates combined with historically high inflation, sellers may need to adjust, especially considering that home resales, which form the majority of US home sales, plummeted by over 8% compared to this time last year.

 

While the rate of increased foreclosure filings was relatively small from May to June – up by just a little over 2.5% – the dramatic year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity, which the experts at ATTOM expect to continue, suggest that foreclosure starts could be back to normal levels by early 2023.

Read on for the foreclosure rates in June 2022 – plus the five counties with the highest rates within those states.

 

Related: The safest cities in the US

 

DepositPhotos.com

 

As noted, foreclosures are up marginally from last month, but significantly compared to last year. Read on for June foreclosure rates for all 50 states — plus the District of Columbia — beginning with the state that had the lowest rate of foreclosure filings per housing unit.

 

 

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Ranking in population between Vermont and Alaska, the country’s 49th and 48th least populated states, Washington, D.C. had 16 foreclosures in June. With a total of 350,364 housing units, Washington, D.C.’s foreclosure rate was one in every 21,898 households, putting it in between the states of North Dakota (#48) and West Virginia (#47).

 

 

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South Dakota nabbed the 50th spot in June. Having 389,921 total housing units, the fifth least populated state had a foreclosure rate of one in every 48,740 households with eight foreclosures. Only four counties saw foreclosures. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Brookings, Codington, Minnehaha, and Pennington.

 

 

RiverNorthPhotography

 

In 49th place for population, Vermont claimed the 49th spot for its foreclosure rate. Of Vermont’s 334,318 housing units, seven homes went into foreclosure at a rate of one in every 47,760 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Grand Isle, Rutland, Addison, Bennington, and Washington.

 

 

DenisTangneyJr

 

North Dakota’s foreclosure rate was one in every 28,511 homes. That puts the fourth least populated state – with a total of 370,642 housing units (of which 13 were in foreclosure) — in 48th place. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Wells, Pembina, Traill, Stark, and Stutsman.

 

 

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The 39th most populated state, West Virginia, ranked 47th. It has 855,635 homes, of which 48 went into foreclosure. That means the foreclosure rate was one in every 17,826 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Boone, Hancock, Raleigh, Jackson, and Marion.

 

 

 

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Kansas took the 46th spot once again. With 1,275,689 homes and a total of 88 housing units going into foreclosure, the 35th most-populated state’s foreclosure rate was one in every 14,496 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Rush, Harper, Pawnee, Cowley, and Cowley.

 

 

Michael Pham

 

Ranked 13th for most populated state, Washington came in 45th place for highest foreclosure rate. It has 3,202,241 housing units, of which 240 went into foreclosure, making the state’s foreclosure rate one in every 13,343 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Pacific, Cowlitz, Asotin, Okanogan, and Lewis.

 

 

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With a total 1,994,323 housing units, Kentucky saw 155 homes go into foreclosure. That put the foreclosure rate for the 26th most populated state at one in every 12,867 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Hardin, Jackson, Grayson, Daviess, and Mercer.

 

 

Thomas Kelley

 

The 38th most populated state, Idaho had 65 homes go into foreclosure. With 751,859 total housing units, the state’s foreclosure rate was one in every 11,567 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Lincoln, Jerome, Gooding, Caribou, and Payette.

 

 

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With 276 foreclosures out of 2,727,726 total housing units, Wisconsin, the 20th most populated state, had a foreclosure rate of one in every 9,883 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Dodge, Douglas, Marquette, Vernon, and Walworth.

 

 

FierceAbin

 

The 27th most populated state ranked 41st for highest foreclosure rate. Of Oregon’s 1,813,747 homes, 187 went into foreclosure, making for a foreclosure rate of one in every 9,699 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Crook, Lake, Multnomah, Clackamas, and Douglas.

 

Recommended: Tips on Buying a Foreclosed Home

 

DC_Colombia / iStock

 

The 41st most populated state, New Hampshire, ranked 40th for highest foreclosure rate. Of 638,795 homes, 67 went into foreclosure, making for a foreclosure rate of one in every 9,534 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Belknap, Carroll, Cheshire, Rockingham, Coos, and Grafton.

 

 

DenisTangneyJr

 

The 15th most populated state ranked 39th for highest foreclosure rate. Of Massachusetts’ 2,998,537 housing units, 335 went into foreclosure, making for a foreclosure rate of one in every 8,951 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Hampden, Berkshire, Franklin, Plymouth, and Worcester.

 

 

 

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In Tennessee, the 16th most populated state, there were 370 foreclosures out of 3,031,605 housing units. That put the foreclosure rate at one in every 8,194 homes and in the 38th spot once again. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Houston, Polk, Chester, Mcnairy, and Haywood.

 

 

NathanMerrill

 

Ranked 37th for population, Nebraska claimed the 37th spot with a foreclosure rate of one in every 8,041 homes. With a total 844,278 housing units, the state had 105 foreclosure filings. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Boyd, Gage, Hamilton, Johnson, and York.

 

 

marekuliasz

 

Ranked 33rd for most populated state, Arkansas took the 36th spot for highest foreclosure rate. It has 1,365,265 housing units, of which 173 went into foreclosure, making the state’s latest foreclosure rate one in every 7,892 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Franklin, Lonoke, Pulaski, Saint Francis, and Conway.

 

 

Rolf_52

 

The eighth least populated state took the 35th spot for highest foreclosure rate. A total of 62 homes went into foreclosure out of 483,474 total housing units, making the foreclosure rate for the Ocean State one in every 7,798 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Bristol, Kent, Providence, Washington, and Newport.

 

 

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The 40th most populated state, Hawaii, came in 34th for highest foreclosure rate. Of 561,066 homes, 73 went into foreclosure, making for a foreclosure rate of one in every 7,686 households. Only four counties in the state had foreclosures. They were (from highest to lowest): Hawaii, Honolul, Maui, and, Kauai.

 

 

Art Wager

 

In Mississippi, the 34th most populated state, there were 173 foreclosures out of 1,319,945 housing units. That put the foreclosure rate at one in every 7,630 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Jefferson Davis, Leake, Coahoma, Simpson, and Quitman.

 

 

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Ranked 18th for most populated state, Maryland took 32nd place for highest foreclosure rate. With a total of 2,530,844 housing units, of which 334 housing units went into foreclosure, the state’s foreclosure rate was one in every 7,577 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Caroline, Prince George’s County, Wicomico, Cecil, and Baltimore City.

 

 

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The 21st most populated state ranked 31st for highest foreclosure rate. Of Colorado’s 2,491,404 housing units, 329 went into foreclosure, making for a foreclosure rate of one in every 7,573 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Rio Blanco, Park, Pueblo, Morgan, and Weld.

 

Recommended: What Is a Short Sale?

 

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In Arizona, the 14th most populated state, there were 424 foreclosures out of 3,082,000 housing units. That put the foreclosure rate at one in every 7,269 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Yuma, Greenlee, La Paz, Pinal, and Cochise.

 

 

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The 36th most populated state took the 29th spot for highest foreclosure rate. Of its 940,859 homes, 130 went into foreclosure, making for a foreclosure rate of one in every 7,237 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Valencia, Chaves, Sierra, Curry, and Lincoln.

 

 

 

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Ranked the least populated state in the country, Wyoming claimed the 28th spot once again for highest foreclosure rate. With 271,887 housing units, of which 43 went into foreclosure, the state’s foreclosure rate was one in every 6,323 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Campbell, Weston, Carbon, Sweetwater, and Converse.

 

 

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Pennsylvania had the 27th highest foreclosure rate once again. The fifth most populated state had a total of 939 housing units out of 5,742,828 homes go into foreclosure, making the state’s foreclosure rate one in every 6,116 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Philadelphia, Delaware, Wayne, Montgomery, and Bucks.

 

 

 

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Alaska saw 52 foreclosures, making the foreclosure rate one in every 6,106 homes. That caused the third least populated state, with a total of 317,524 housing units, to take the 26th spot. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Anchorage, Fairbanks North Star, Matanuska-Susitn, Kenai Peninsula, and Juneau.

 

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The 12th most populated state ranked 25th for highest foreclosure rate, with 620 homes going into foreclosure. Having 3,618,247 total housing units, the state saw a foreclosure rate of one in every 5,836 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Galax City, Martinsville City, Buena Vista City, Suffolk City, and Portsmouth City.

 

 

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Ranked 22nd for most populated state, Minnesota took the 24th spot for highest foreclosure rate. It has 2,485,558 housing units, of which 429 went into foreclosure, making the state’s foreclosure rate one in every 5,794 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Jackson, Sherburne, Mower, Rice, and Steele.

 

 

JoeChristensen

 

The 19th most populated state, Missouri came in 23rd for highest rate of foreclosures. Of its 2,786,621 homes, 488 went into foreclosure, making for a foreclosure rate of one in every 5,710 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Webster, Stoddard, Pulaski Randolph, and Bates.

 

 

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Ranked 25th for population, Louisiana took the 22nd spot, with 365 homes out of a total of 2,073,200 housing units going into foreclosure. That means Louisiana had a foreclosure rate of one in every 5,680 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): West Baton Rouge, Tangipahoa, Livingston, Beauregard, and Ascension.

 

 

DenisTangneyJr

 

Utah placed 21st for highest foreclosure rate. Of the Beehive State’s 1,151,414 housing units, 214 homes went into foreclosure, making the 30th most-populated state’s foreclosure rate one in every 5,380 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Daggett, Tooele, Beaver, Morgan, and Salt Lake.

 

Recommended: 4 Signs You May Be Ready to Buy

 

 

AndreyKrav

 

The 44th most populated state took the 20th spot. With 100 foreclosures out of 514,803 housing units, its foreclosure rate was one in every 5,148 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Sheridan, Wheatland, Judith Basin, Blaine, and Hill.

 

 

JoeChristensen

 

Ranked as the ninth least populated state, Maine placed 19th for highest foreclosure rate. With a total of 739,072 housing units, the Pine Tree State saw 144 foreclosures for a foreclosure rate of one in every 5,132 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Aroostook, Penobscot, Somerset, Washington, and Waldo.

 

 

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The Lone Star State saw 2,284 foreclosures. With a foreclosure rate of one in every 5,074 households, this put the second most populous state with 11,589,324 housing units into the 18th spot. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Orange, Scurry, Terry, Liberty, and Carson.

 

 

DenisTangneyJr

 

With 1,733 out of a total 8,488,066 housing units going into foreclosure, the fourth most populated state took the 17th spot. New York’s foreclosure rate was one in every 4,898 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Steuben, Schoharie, Cattaraugus, Suffolk, and Nassau.

 

 

Boogich

 

Ranking 10th in population, Michigan took the 16th spot with a foreclosure rate of one in every 4,678 homes. With a total of 4,570,173 housing units, the state had 977 foreclosure filings. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Cass, Saint Joseph, Calhoun, Ionia, and Genesee.

 

 

 

haveseen

 

Iowa had the 15th highest foreclosure rate. With 308 housing units out of 1,412,789 homes going into foreclosure, the 31st most populated state’s foreclosure rate was one in every 4,587 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Taylor, Jones, Des Moines, Tama, and Washington.

 

 

JoeChristensen

 

The ninth most populated state took 14th place for highest foreclosure rate. Out of 4,708,710 homes, 1,060 went into foreclosure. That put the Tar Heel State’s foreclosure rate at one in every 4,442 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Martin, Cleveland, Hertford, Hoke, and Cumberland.

 

 

” Darwin Brandis”

 

The eighth most populated state, Georgia ranked 13th for highest foreclosure rate. Of its 4,410,956 homes, 1,096 were foreclosed on. That put the state’s foreclosure rate at one in every 4,025 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Crawford, Quitman, Rockdale, Macon, and Liberty.

 

 

SeanPavonePhoto

 

Oklahoma claimed the 12th spot. With housing units totaling 1,746,807, the 28th most populated state saw 436 homes go into foreclosure at a rate of one in every 4,006 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Kingfisher, Cimarron, Tillman, Caddo, and Comanche.

 

 

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The country’s most populated state ranked 11th for highest foreclosure rate. Of its 14,392,140 housing units, 3,663 went into foreclosure, making California’s foreclosure rate one in every 3,929 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Glenn, Sutter, Lake, Merced, and Trinity.

 

Recommended: Your 2022 Guide to All Things Home

 

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The 17th largest state by population, Indiana took the 10th spot once again with a foreclosure rate of one in every 3,908 homes. Of its 2,923,175 homes, 748 homes were foreclosed on in June. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Grant, Wabash, Vanderburgh, Wayne, and White.

 

 

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Ranked 24th for most populated, Alabama came in ninth for highest foreclosure rate. Of its 2,288,330 homes, 624 went into foreclosure, making for a foreclosure rate of one in every 3,667 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Dallas, Jefferson, Butler, Geneva, and Walker.

 

 

James Deitsch

 

With 423 of its 1,530,197 homes going into foreclosure, Connecticut had the eighth highest foreclosure rate at one in every 3,617 households. In the 29th most populated state, the counties that had the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Windham, Litchfield, New Haven, New London, and Fairfield.

 

 

traveler1116

 

The third most populated state in the country has a total of 9,865,350 housing units, of which 3,429 went into foreclosure. The state’s foreclosure rate is one in every 2,877 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Gadsden, Gilchrist, Osceola, Santa Rosa, and Pasco.

 

 

Elisa.rolle

 

With a foreclosure rate of one in every 2,735 homes, New Jersey fell out of the top three and into sixth place for highest foreclosure rate. The 11th most populated state has 3,761,229 housing units, of which 1,375 went into foreclosure. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Cumberland, Salem, Camden, Atlantic, and Gloucester.

 

 

Ultima_Gaina / istockphoto

 

With one in every 2,471 homes going into foreclosure, South Carolina took the fifth spot. Ranked 23rd for population, South Carolina has 2,344,963 housing units and saw 949 foreclosure filings. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Fairfield, Dorchester, Kershaw, Richland, and Spartanburg.

 

 

SeanPavonePhoto

 

Ranking 32nd in population, Nevada took the fourth spot for foreclosure rate. With one in every 2,408 homes going into foreclosure, and a total of 1,281,018 housing units, the state had 532 foreclosure filings. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Lander, Churchill, Washoe, Clark, and White Pine.

 

 

AlizadaStudios

 

Ohio moved into the top three in June with a foreclosure rate of one in every 2,386 homes. With a total of 5,242,524 housing units, the seventh most populated state had a total of 2,197 filings. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Cuyahoga, Huron, Lake, Fayette, and Stark.

 

 

dypics

 

The sixth least populated state in the country, Delaware crept up from third to second place in June for highest foreclosure rate. With one in every 2,117 homes going into foreclosure and a total 448,735 housing units, Delaware saw a total of 212 foreclosure filings. With only three counties in the state, the most foreclosures per housing unit were in (from highest to lowest): Kent, New Castle, and Sussex.

 

 

mdgmorris

 

Illinois took the number one spot again in June. Of its 5,426,429 homes, 2,589 went into foreclosure, making the sixth most populated state’s foreclosure rate one in every 2,096. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Saint Clair, Madison, Piatt, Gallatin, and Rock Island.

 

 

ibsky

 

Of all 50 states, California had the most foreclosure filings (3,663); Vermont had the least (7). As for the states with the highest foreclosure rates, Illinois, Delaware and Ohio took the top three spots, respectively.

 

Two regions – The Great Lakes and the Southeast – tied for having the largest presence among the 10 states that ranked the highest for foreclosure rates. The states in the Great Lakes region were (from highest to lowest): Illinois, Ohio, and Indiana. The states in the Southeast region were (from highest to lowest): South Carolina, Florida, and Alabama.

 

The Plains region had the largest presence among the 10 states that ranked the lowest for foreclosure rates. The states were (from highest to lowest): Kansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

 

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This article originally appeared on SoFi.comand was syndicated by MediaFeed.org.

 

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