Most Americans can’t afford a home in these US cities

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Rising interest rates have a great impact on affordability of single-family homes. But what types of buyers and investors will face the greatest headwinds? And what locations will fare better than others?

 

Mortgage interest rates hit historic lows of 2.65 percent in January 2021 as published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and have been rising steadily since. As of early mid-April, they tipped past 5 percent, up almost 2 percent in the last two months.

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In many metro areas, households earning today’s median income would have a very difficult time affording a house priced at the median. And rising rates are threatening to make that gap even wider.

 

The number of new unit builders have in the pipeline over the next few years will be a mitigating factor to the supply crunch and the steep price escalations of the last two years in the hottest markets across the country’s Sunbelt, including Las VegasPhoenixAustin, Dallas, Atlanta and Tampa.

Looking at median incomes, and median prices

To analyze the impact of the current higher interest rate on affordability, the first question to look at is whether the national median income can afford the national median home price.

 

For this analysis, a 20 percent down payment on a loan that conforms to Fannie Mae standards is assumed. Most Fannie Mae loans can be no greater than 28 percent of the borrower’s gross income.

 

This assumption requires that the income required to afford the loan payment with an 80 percent loan-to-value, i.e., a purchase in which the home buyer puts 20 percent down. The payments also include estimates for taxes and insurance.

Home affordability

According to statistics from the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development, the median family income was $79,900 in 2021. So, at a national level, the median income cannot afford the median price of $392,000 (as of February) at a 5 percent mortgage rate.

If rates climb further, this gap will widen.

 

Doing the same math in some major metros, assuming a 5 percent interest rate and 20 percent down payment, yields these results. In 11 of the 21 metros (in red), a household would need an income higher than the national median to be able to afford a house in the median price range.

Affordability index

As expected, many of the higher-priced coastal markets have a greater level of income-to-home price mismatch, which has created affordability problems that are quite extreme in some cases, with prices outstripping incomes by more than $100,000.

 

In Los Angeles, for example, the median income is not even $81,000 and the median home costs around $815,000. San Francisco has a median income of not quite $126,000 and a median home price of over $1 million.

 

Metros in Dallas and Atlanta are currently on the cusp of this affordability line. As rates rise, more of the 20 metros may also become more unaffordable.

What about the first-time home buyer?

The first-time home buyer cohort is struggling in the current market. Per Zillow, first-time buyers accounted for only about 27 percent of home purchases in January 2022, down from 43 percent in 2020 and 37 percent in 2021.

 

Millennials are a big percentage of first-time home buyers as they settle down and build families.

 

The same affordability analysis appears below (at a 4.8 percent mortgage interest rate) with the median price of the most affordable one-fourth of homes in the metros as a substitute for the entry-level home price.

 

For this analysis, FHA loans were considered, which are designed to help first-time home buyers who may not have saved enough for a 20 percent down payment; they allow borrowers to get in with only a 3.5 percent down payment.

 

FHA loans will fund a maximum home price of $420,680 for single family homes in low-cost areas. In high-cost areas, that amount rises to $970,800. These borrowers, however, have to pay an insurance premium that gets tacked on to the monthly payments.

 

FHA loans are slightly more generous, going as high as 31 percent of the borrower’s gross income.

FHA affordability index

In 11 of the 20 metros, the median income cannot afford a starter home with an FHA loan. This is partly because of the lower down payment requirements and the insurance premiums that get tacked on to the monthly payments.

 

This presents a Catch-22. Entry-level home buyers cannot afford higher-priced homes as they may not have enough saved for a down payment. On the other hand, they can’t afford entry-level homes either, because if they put down a smaller amount, the payments are higher.

 

Both scenarios are exacerbated by the high home prices in these markets.

 

Unfortunately, for first-time home buyers, this price range represents a fiercely competitive segment of the market, where inventory is tight and prospective homeowners are also competing against investors, many of whom pay cash.

The outlook

Median existing home prices rose 15 percent year over year to $357,300 in February 2022, according to the National Association of Realtors. Average prices in major metros were up by 19.2 percent year over year in January 2022, as reported by Case Schiller.

 

But pay increases are nowhere near keeping up even with an annual inflation rate of 8 percent, to say nothing of keeping up with home price escalation. Per Payscale’s 2022 Compensation Best Practices report, only 44 percent of employers are planning to give employees a pay raise of 3 percent or more. March data reported by the Wall Street Journal shows a 5.6 percent hourly wage increase year over year.

 

A number of new homes are expected to come to the market in the next few years and should ease the supply crunch.

According to John Burns Real Estate Consulting, builders have 1.2 million housing starts and 1.2 million permits in 2022, a trend that is likely to continue over the next few years, as Freddie Mac estimates the country is somewhere around 3.8 million homes short of demand.

 

If interest rates push past 5 percent, demand for homes is likely to be curtailed, and continued inflation may cause a recession instead of the soft landing the Fed is trying to achieve.

 

If these two factors cause home price escalation to soften but not so much that prices fall and existing owners delay selling their homes. Recent surveys have shown that 6 in 10 prospective sellers expect to put their homes in the market in the next 6 months, as some fear that rising rates will make it too late for them to cash in on higher valuations.

 

For now, some aspiring homebuyers may have to rent single family homes till the home buying environment normalizes.

 

This article originally appeared on Mynd.co and was syndicated by MediaFeed.org.

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These states have been hit hardest by rising foreclosures

 

The number of U.S. properties with foreclosure filings in February was 25,833, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. This is up 129% from February last year when foreclosure activity remained low due to the pandemic-related moratorium on foreclosures. The Biden administration’s final extension of the moratorium on foreclosures ended July 31, 2021. The extension of the evictions moratorium for foreclosed borrowers ended September 30, 2021.

 

It is also worth noting that foreclosure filings increased by over 11% from January to February. This rise follows the roughly 29% increase in foreclosure filings that occurred from December 2021 to January 2022. The researchers at ATTOM report that this month-to-month, double-digit increase is in line with expectations and will likely continue for at least the next six months.

 

After two years of historically low foreclosure numbers due to government and industry programs designed to protect homeowners financially impacted by the pandemic, these increases signify the gradual return to normal levels of foreclosure activity.

 

February is now the eighth consecutive month showing an annual increase in foreclosure activity. According to ATTOM, year-over-year foreclosure increases will likely continue for the rest of 2022; however, they still expect foreclosures to stay below historic levels through the end of the year. Read on for the foreclosure rates in February 2022 – plus the five counties with the highest rates within those states.

 

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As just noted, foreclosures are up from last month, and up even more significantly compared to last year. Read on for February foreclosure rates for all 50 states — plus the District of Columbia — beginning with the state that had the lowest rate of foreclosure filings per housing unit.

 

 

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Ranking in population between Alaska and Vermont, the country’s 48th and 49th least populated states, Washington, D.C. had 19 foreclosures in February. With a total of 315,176 housing units, Washington, D.C.’s foreclosure rate was one in every 16,588 households, putting it in between the states of Montana (#44) and Kansas (#43).

 

 

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South Dakota ranked 50th with five homes going into foreclosure. Having 388,569 total housing units, the fifth least populated state had a foreclosure rate of one in every 77,714 households. The most foreclosures per housing unit were in counties (from highest to lowest): Walworth, Butte, Lincoln, Pennington, and Minnehaha.

 

 

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In February, North Dakota’s foreclosure rate was one in every 37,306 homes. That puts the fourth least populated state – with a total of 373,063 housing units, of which 10 were in foreclosure – in 49th place. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Nelson, Barnes, Ward, Cass, and Burleigh.

 

 

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Alaska saw 10 foreclosures, making the foreclosure rate one in every 31,467 homes. That caused the third least populated state, with a total of 314,670 housing units, to take the 48th spot. With only three counties seeing foreclosures, the counties that had the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Kenai Peninsula, Matanuska-Susitna, and Anchorage.

 

 

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The 38th most populated state, West Virginia, ranked 47th. It has 892,182 homes, of which 33 went into foreclosure. That means the foreclosure rate was one in every 27,036 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Grant, Wayne, Hancock, Marshall, and Lewis.

 

 

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In 49th place for population, Vermont claimed the 46th spot for foreclosure rate. Of Vermont’s 334,999 housing units, 13 homes went into foreclosure for a rate of one in every 25,769 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Windham, Bennington, Rutland, Washington, and Addison.

 

 

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The 27th most populated state ranked 45th for highest foreclosure rate. Of Oregon’s 1,768,901 homes, 73 went into foreclosure, making for a foreclosure rate of one in every 24,232 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Douglas, Clackamas, Washington, Coos, and Klamath.

 

 

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The 44th most populated state also ranked 44th for foreclosure rate. This is the same ranking the state held in January. With 26 foreclosures out of 510,180 housing units, its foreclosure rate was one in every 19,622 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Blaine, Richland, Custer, Fergus, and Yellowstone.

 

 

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Kansas took the 43rd spot in February. With 1,273,297 homes and a total of 78 housing units going into foreclosure, the 35th most-populated state’s foreclosure rate was one in every 16,324 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Geary, Seward, Sherman, Cowley, and Brown.

 

 

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With a total 1,983,949 housing units, Kentucky saw 134 homes go into foreclosure, and held the same ranking from January. That put the foreclosure rate for the 26th most populated state at one in every 14,806 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Trimble, Hardin, Boyd, Union, and Greenup.

 

 

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Ranked 13th for most populated state, Washington came in 41st place for highest foreclosure rate. It has 3,106,528 housing units, of which 244 went into foreclosure, making the state’s foreclosure rate one in every 12,732 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Asotin, Pacific, Snohomish, Douglas, and Grays Harbor.

 

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In Tennessee, the 16th most populated state, there were 249 foreclosures out of 2,963,486 housing units. That put the foreclosure rate at one in every 11,902 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Moore, Rhea, Cocke, Sequatchie, and Carroll.

 

 

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The 39th most populated state, Idaho had 62 homes go into foreclosure. With 723,594 total housing units, the state’s foreclosure rate was one in every 11,671 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Payette, Franklin, Teton, Bonneville, and Washington.

 

 

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The 41st most populated state, New Hampshire ranked 38th for highest foreclosure rate. Of 634,726 homes, 56 went into foreclosure, making for a foreclosure rate of one in every 11,334 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Merrimack, Cheshire, Strafford, Rockingham, and Belknap.

 

 

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Ranked 22nd for most populated state, Minnesota took the 37th spot for highest foreclosure rate. It has 2,438,203 housing units, of which 219 went into foreclosure, making the state’s foreclosure rate one in every 11,133 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Wright, Rock, Washington, Pipestone, and Murray.

 

 

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Ranked the least populated in the country, Wyoming claimed the 36th spot for highest foreclosure rate. With 276,846 housing units, of which 26 went into foreclosure, the state’s foreclosure rate was one in every 10,648 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Campbell, Washakie, Johnson, Big Horn, and Converse.

 

 

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Ranked 32nd for most populated state, Arkansas took the 35th spot for highest foreclosure rate. It has 1,370,281 housing units, of which 136 went into foreclosure, making the state’s latest foreclosure rate one in every 10,076 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Cleveland, Miller, Fulton, Union, and Lonoke.

 

 

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In Mississippi, the 33rd most populated state, there were 132 foreclosures out of 1,322,808 housing units. That put the foreclosure rate at one in every 10,021 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Lawrence, Coahoma, De Soto, Franklin, and Holmes.

 

 

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Ranked 25th for population, Louisiana took the 33rd spot, with 219 homes out of a total 2,059,918 going into foreclosure. That means Louisiana had a foreclosure rate of one in every 9,406 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Saint Charles, Franklin, Saint Landry, Tangipahoa, and Livingston.

 

 

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The 21st most populated state ranked 32nd for highest foreclosure rate. Of Colorado’s 2,386,475 housing units, 254 went into foreclosure, making for a foreclosure rate of one in every 9,396 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Jackson, Delta, Phillips, Morgan, and Archuleta.

 

 

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The 12th most populated state ranked 31st for highest foreclosure rate, with 387 homes going into foreclosure. Having 3,514,032 total housing units, the state saw a foreclosure rate of one in every 9,080 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Norton City, Sussex, Martinsville City, Surry, and Mathews.

 

 

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The eighth least populated state took the 30th spot for highest foreclosure rate. A total of 53 homes went into foreclosure out of 468,335 total housing units, making the foreclosure rate for the Ocean State one in every 8,837 households. Only four counties in the state had foreclosures.They were (from highest to lowest): Kent, Providence, Bristol, and Newport.

 

 

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With 1,015 out of a total 8,322,722 housing units going into foreclosure, the fourth most populated state took the 29th spot. New York’s foreclosure rate was one in every 8,200 households in February. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Suffolk, Cattaraugus, Ulster, Washington, and Greene.

 

 

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With 343 foreclosures out of 2,694,527 total housing units, Wisconsin, the 20th most populated state, had a foreclosure rate of one in every 7,856 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Langlade, Washburn, Waupaca, Walworth, and Dodge.

 

 

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The 15th most populated state ranked 27th for highest foreclosure rate. Of Massachusetts’ 2,897,259 housing units, 374 went into foreclosure, making for a foreclosure rate of one in every 7,747 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Hampden, Bristol, Plymouth, Berkshire, and Worcester.

 

 

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Oklahoma claimed the 26th spot. With housing units totaling 1,731,632, the 28th most populated state saw 234 homes go into foreclosure at a rate of one in every 7,400 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Kingfisher, Jackson, Craig, Dewey, and Muskogee.

 

 

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The 40th most populated state, Hawaii came in 25th for highest foreclosure rate. Of 542,674 homes, 75 went into foreclosure, making for a foreclosure rate of one in every 7,236 households. Only four counties in the state had foreclosures. They were (from highest to lowest): Hawaii, Honolulu, Kauai, and Maui.

 

 

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Ranked 24th for most populated, Alabama came in 24th for highest foreclosure rate. Of its 2,255,026 homes, 321 went into foreclosure, making for a foreclosure rate of one in every 7,025 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Escambia, Henry, Autauga, Russell, and Conecuh.

 

 

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The Lone Star State saw 1,588 foreclosures in February. With a foreclosure rate of one in every 6,887 households, this put the second most populous state with 10,937,026 housing units into the 23rd spot. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Real, Cochran, Atascosa, Mcculloch, and Wilson.

 

 

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The 18th most populated state, Missouri came in 22nd for highest rate of foreclosures. Of its 2,790,397 homes, 411 went into foreclosure, making for a foreclosure rate of one in every 6,789 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Shelby, Dekalb, Audrain, Clay, and Perry.

 

 

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The 36th most populated state took the 21st spot for highest foreclosure rate. This is the same ranking the state held in January. Of its 937,920 homes, 141 went into foreclosure, making for a foreclosure rate of one in every 6,652 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Sierra, Otero, Valencia, Eddy, and San Juan.

 

 

 

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Pennsylvania, the fifth most populated state, had a total of 876 housing units out of 5,693,314 homes go into foreclosure, making the state’s foreclosure rate one in every 6,499 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Philadelphia, Venango, Bucks, Delaware, and Schuylkill.

 

 

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Ranked 37th for population, Nebraska claimed the 19th spot with a foreclosure rate of one in every 6,345 homes. With a total 837,476 housing units, the state had 132 foreclosure filings. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Hamilton, Garden, Clay, Webster, and Platte.

 

 

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The ninth most populated state took 18th place for highest foreclosure rate. Out of 4,627,089 homes, 768 went into foreclosure. That put the Tar Heel State’s foreclosure rate at one in every 6,025 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Jones, Scotland, Gates, Tyrrell, and Onslow.

 

 

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With 236 housing units out of 1,397,087 homes going into foreclosure, the 30th most populated state’s foreclosure rate was one in every 5,920 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Tama, Mills, Jasper, Obrien, and Van Buren.

 

 

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Utah placed 16th in February for highest foreclosure rate. Of the Beehive State’s 1,087,112 housing units, 184 homes went into foreclosure, making the 31st most-populated state’s foreclosure rate one in every 5,908 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Juab, Tooele, Beaver, Carbon, and Cache.

 

 

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In Arizona, the 14th most populated state, there were 516 foreclosures out of 3,003,286 housing units. That put the foreclosure rate at one in every 5,820 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Gila, Pinal, Cochise, Mohave, and Santa Cruz.

 

 

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The eighth most populated state, Georgia ranked 14th for highest foreclosure rate. Of its 4,283,477 homes, 762 were foreclosed on. That put the state’s foreclosure rate at one in every 5,621 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Crawford, Terrell, Elbert, Worth, and Pierce.

 

 

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Ranked as the ninth least populated state, Maine placed 13th for highest foreclosure rate. This is the same ranking the state held in January. With a total of 742,788 housing units, the Pine Tree State saw 136 foreclosures for a foreclosure rate of one in every 5,462 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Androscoggin, Washington, Aroostook, Penobscot, and Piscataquis.

 

 

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With 281 of its 1,516,629 homes going into foreclosure, Connecticut had a foreclosure rate of one in every 5,397 households. In the 29th most populated state, the counties that had the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Windham, Tolland, Middlesex, New Haven, and Hartford.

 

 

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Ranking 10th for population, Michigan took the 11th spot with a foreclosure rate of one in every 5,363 homes. With a total of 4,596,198 housing units, the state had 857 foreclosure filings. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Macomb, Genesee, Wayne, Kalkaska, and Shiawassee.

 

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The most populated state ranked 10th for highest foreclosure rate. Of its 14,175,976 housing units, 2,927 went into foreclosure, making California’s foreclosure rate one in every 4,843 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Alpine, Yuba, Trinity, Shasta, and Lake.

 

 

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The third most populated state in the country has a total of 9,448,159 housing units, of which 2,833 went into foreclosure. That’s a foreclosure rate of one in every 3,335 homes. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Baker, Osceola, Polk, Duval, Suwannee.

 

 

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The 17th largest state by population, Indiana took the eighth spot with a foreclosure rate of one in every 3,262 homes. Of its 2,886,548 homes, 885 homes were foreclosed on in February. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Sullivan, Lake, La Porte, Madison, and Vanderburgh.

 

 

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The sixth least populated state in the country, Delaware ranked seventh for highest foreclosure rate. This is the same ranking the state held in January. With one in every 3,257 homes going into foreclosure and a total 433,195 housing units, Delaware saw a total of 133 foreclosure filings. With only three counties in the state, the most foreclosures per housing unit were in (from highest to lowest): Kent, New Castle, and Sussex.

 

 

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Ranked 19th for most populated state, Maryland took sixth place for highest foreclosure rate. With a total of 2,448,422 housing units, of which 779 housing units went into foreclosure, the state’s foreclosure rate was one in every 3,143 households. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Caroline, Prince George’s County, Dorchester, Washington, and Baltimore City.

 

 

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Ranking 34th in population, Nevada took the fifth spot for foreclosure rate. With one in every 3,112 homes going into foreclosure and a total of 1,250,893 housing units, the state had 402 foreclosure filings. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Clark, Lander, Mineral, Nye, and Washoe.

 

 

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With one in every 3,001 homes going into foreclosure, South Carolina took the fourth spot. Ranked 23rd for population, South Carolina has 2,286,826 housing units and saw 762 foreclosure filings. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Dorchester, Richland, Lexington, Kershaw, and Orangeburg.

 

 

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Ohio claimed the third spot in February, with a foreclosure rate of one in every 2,801 homes. With a total of 5,202,304 housing units, the seventh most populated state had a total of 1,857 filings. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Cuyahoga, Preble, Lake, Marion, and Trumbull.

 

 

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Illinois remained in the top three, taking second place once again. Of its 5,360,315 homes, 2,126 went into foreclosure, making the sixth most populated state’s foreclosure rate one in every 2,521. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Edgar, Livingston, Will, De Kalb, and Cook.

 

 

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With a foreclosure rate of one in every 2,510 homes, New Jersey took the top spot for a second month in a row. The 11th most populated state has 3,616,614 housing units, of which, 1,441 went into foreclosure. The counties with the most foreclosures per housing unit were (from highest to lowest): Salem, Ocean, Burlington, Warren, and Essex.

 

 

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Of all 50 states, California had the most foreclosure filings (2,927); South Dakota had the least (5). As for the states with the highest foreclosure rates, New Jersey, Illinois, and Ohio took the top three spots, respectively.

 

The Great Lakes region and the Mideast region tied for the largest presence among the 10 states that ranked the highest for foreclosure rates. The states in the Great Lakes region were (from highest to lowest): Illinois, Ohio, and Indiana. The states in the Mideast region were (from highest to lowest): New Jersey, Maryland, and Delaware.

 

The Plains region and the West region tied for the regions with the largest presence among the 10 states that ranked the lowest for foreclosure rates. In the Plains, these states were (from highest to lowest): Kansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota. In the West, these states were (from highest to lowest): Washington, Oregon, and Alaska.

 

This article originally appeared on SoFi.comand was syndicated by MediaFeed.org.

 

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